Circulating supply is the starting point
An unlock increases potential circulating supply, but unlocked tokens do not always become liquid immediately. Vesting claims, staking, treasury decisions, and transfer restrictions can change the path.
Measure the unlock as a percentage of current circulating supply to understand its scale.
Price and market cap cannot both stay fixed
If market cap remains constant while supply grows, the arithmetic price per token falls. If price remains constant, market cap must grow in proportion to the new supply.
These are boundary scenarios, not predictions. Real markets can move both variables at once.
Add a custom demand scenario
A custom market-cap change lets you explore a combined demand and supply assumption. State that assumption explicitly and avoid treating the result as a target price.
Put the method into practice
Open the related calculator with your own inputs. Review its formula, source labels, and limitations before comparing the result with a wallet, exchange, contract interface, or provider.
Use Token Unlock Dilution Calculator →